By Sasha Cekerevac for Investment Contrarians | Nov 5, 2013
As everyone is celebrating the market at record highs, another record was just broken and no one appears to be celebrating it.
Of course, I’m talking about the fact that the U.S. government debt total has just exceeded $17.0 trillion.
No one should be really surprised, since we continue running deficits each year. This just means that our government debt will continue to climb, with no end in sight.
Government debt totaling $17.0 trillion is a staggering amount of money. That equates to almost $149,000 per taxpayer. Of course, this doesn’t include unfunded liabilities. When you add in Medicare, Social Security liabilities, and a vast assortment of other levels of government debt, the total is well over $100 trillion.
Again, this may not be much of a surprise to our readers, as most of you are aware of our government debt problem; what may be a surprise to many, however, is the continued global demand for U.S. bonds.
Because we have been able to sell U.S. bonds for so long to investors around the world, this has enabled us to keep spending and to procrastinate when it comes to getting our house in order.
However, I don’t believe this can go on forever. At some point, foreign investors are going to start getting worried that all those trillions of dollars they pumped into U.S. bonds might be worth a whole lot less in the future.
This political circus that we are witnessing in Washington just barely scratches the surface of how much work really needs to get done to solve our government debt problem.
Because the rest of the world … Read More
By Sasha Cekerevac for Investment Contrarians | Oct 30, 2013
Whenever I’m asked what I think has the biggest potential impact not only on the stock market, but also on our way of life, I always point to the continued increase in government debt.
Over the short term, the Federal Reserve has attempted to stimulate the economy partially by buying U.S. Treasuries. Under normal monetary policy, the Federal Reserve only directly impacts short-term interest rates. To reduce long-term interest rates, the Fed began buying U.S. Treasuries, pushing up the price and lowering the yield.
Over the short term, we can look around today and notice that the sky is not falling. However, as government debt continues to pile on, approaching $17.0 trillion (which doesn’t include unfunded liabilities), at some point, this will impact not only U.S. Treasuries, but also our entire economy.
Part of the reason that U.S. Treasuries are still in demand worldwide is that the U.S. dollar remains a reserve currency. There are benefits from a logistical standpoint in conducting business using the reserve currency to also use U.S. Treasuries for investment purposes.
However, as I’ve mentioned in other articles, large investors in U.S. Treasuries, such as China, are increasingly calling for a new global financial system that relies less on the U.S. dollar.
That sentiment alone should shock the politicians into action and make them realize that our biggest lenders, the ones buying our U.S. Treasuries, are questioning our ability to manage the rising pile of government debt.
The most recent data from August was that China actually reduced its holdings in U.S. Treasuries to a six-month low, according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury. (Source: … Read More