By Sasha Cekerevac for Investment Contrarians | Dec 9, 2013
The S&P 500 may be entering bubble-like territory: that’s what I’ve been writing for the past few months.
Now, it appears as though I’m not the only one who’s worried about asset classes beginning to form bubbles from the excess money printing. 2013 Nobel Prize-winner Robert Shiller also recently stated that he is concerned that prices have risen far too quickly across many asset classes, from real estate to stocks.
As I’ve written several times over the past couple of months, investing in stocks at these elevated levels is quite risky. My belief is that much of the upward move in the S&P 500 has been primarily based on the liquidity (money printing) being pumped by the Federal Reserve.
Investing in stocks with this premise can only work for the very short-term trader who’s quick enough to get out when the tide begins to turn.
Because people are not investing in stocks based on actual fundamentals right now, one can’t expect the value in the S&P 500 to remain elevated once there’s a change in monetary policy, since much of the move has been artificially supported.
Let’s take a look at how the S&P 500 has been affected by monetary policy over the past few years, and how investing in stocks at the current level is becoming increasingly risky.
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
The first quantitative easing program by the Federal Reserve lasted from December 2008 until March 2010. This period is not shown on the chart above, as one could argue that the S&P 500 became extremely oversold and that investing in stocks for the long-term made sense at … Read More
It’s been over a month since I looked at gold, so perhaps it’s time to review my evaluation on the yellow precious metal. To recall, I didn’t like the metal at $1,800 an ounce, or even after its declines to $1,600 and $1,500. I didn’t even like it at $1,300.
Even when gold rallied from below $1,300 to $1,365 after the Federal Reserve decided to not begin tapering its bond buying at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, I refused to jump on the band wagon. It just wasn’t the right time.
The problem, in my view, was a lack of reasons why I should buy. In fact, buying into equities in mid-September would have offered investors returns, while losses mounted in gold.
Now, I keep reading about how China is buying more and more gold. Rumor has it that the country is building a big safe-house in Shanghai that could store up to 2,000 pounds of the shiny metal. Sorry, but I’m still not quite convinced that gold is a buy right now. I’m still not impressed.
China has over $3.0 trillion in cash and needs to do something with it. For China, buying U.S. Treasury bonds may not be the best idea, given that the U.S. government appears to be a mess and debt levels just keep rising. So that just leaves gold—luckily, the Chinese love the metal.
Tensions in the Middle East appear to be quiet, but you never know when a conflict could arise, especially with Syria being accused of playing the rest of the world with its agreement to allow the destruction of … Read More