housing sector

Why Job Creation in America Is a Myth

By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | Apr 5, 2013

Job Creation in America Is a Myth In President Obama’s election debates and his State of the Union address, a key part of the talk focused on getting Americans back to work. Despite what you are sometimes hearing about the improving jobs market, the reality is that jobs remain somewhat scarce.

By the time you read this, you will know what the non-farm payrolls reading is and, by all accounts, it will not be that good for the jobs market. Briefing.com estimates the creation of 185,000 new jobs in March, which would be well below the 236,000 created in February. This is not what we want to see in the jobs market. The unemployment rate is predicted by Briefing.com to nudge up to 7.8%, from the current 7.7%. Again, not great.

In my estimate, the jobs market is moving along, but not at a rate that will lower the unemployment numbers anytime soon.

The private Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change reading reported on Wednesday foreshadowed America’s fragile jobs market, as a mere 158,000 new jobs were created in March, well below the Briefing.com estimate of 200,000 and the upward revised 237,000 new jobs in February. The interesting fact was that 74,000 of the new jobs were generated by small businesses with under 50 employees, while a mere 47,000 new jobs were created by large companies with over 500 employees, according to ADP. (Source: “National Employment Trends,” Automatic Data Processing, Inc. web site, last accessed April 4, 2013.)

The March ADP reading was the lowest since 148,000 in October 2012. In fact, since March 2012, there have only been three months with over 200,000 new jobs created. … Read More

America’s Auto Sector Says Thank You to Mr. Bernanke

By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | Apr 4, 2013

America’s Auto Sector Says Thank You to Mr. Bernanke The impact of the Federal Reserve’s low interest rates and easy monetary policy can be seen everywhere. The housing sector is seeing another boom thanks to the Federal Reserve. So is the retail sector and consumer spending, in spite of the fact that jobs growth is not at pre-recession levels. The Dow and the S&P 500 also achieved more records on Tuesday. Again, the stock market wealth and all of the 300,000 or so newly minted millionaires have the Federal Reserve to thank.

On Tuesday, the automobile sector joined in on the fun, as easy money and cheap financing rates for new vehicles helped to drive up sales to the highest levels since 2007.

At Ford Motor Company (NYSE/F), sales increased six percent to 236,160 vehicles sold in March, while at General Motors Company (NYSE/GM), sales jumped 6.4% to 245,950 in March.

You can get a 60-month financing term for a new vehicle for as little as 2.24% at the Bank of America Corporation (NYSE/BAC) and 2.69% at Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE/COF). (Source: “Auto Loan Rates,” My Bank Tracker web site, last accessed April 2, 2013.) The average 60-month rate is around 4.12%, according to Bankrate.com, down from 4.52% a year ago.

You can also thank President Obama for helping to save the auto sector, as the move is apparently paying dividends.

While the renewed spending across America is good for the economic recovery, you kind of have to wonder about the ramifications down the road, when interest rates begin to ratchet higher.

Some members of the Federal Reserve are already beginning to voice their opinion to start reducing … Read More

Why America’s Confidence Is Fragile

By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | Feb 13, 2013

America’s Confidence Is Fragile The recession is over, and the U.S. economy is showing some encouraging signs of economic renewal.

Shoppers are hitting the malls and stores, helping to drive up retail sales. I’d stick with the top department stores, like Macys, Inc. (NYSE/M), or discounters, such as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE/WMT), which will continue to rebound.

The housing sector has been sizzling since the recession, with a superlative rise in housing starts, building permits, and home prices. Homebuilder stocks, including the developers of residential real estate, are sizzling on the charts—Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE/TOL) and Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE/HOV), especially.

Since the recession, the jobs market is showing some growth, with the unemployment rate holding just below eight percent. As the jobs market recovers, look to some of the staffing companies, such as Robert Half International Inc. (NYSE/RHI), Manpower Inc. (NYSE/MAN), and Kelly Services, Inc. (NASDAQ/KELYA), to deliver.

So, America appears to be headed in the right direction since the recession hit; but underneath all of the economic jargon and positive media headlines about the “Great Recovery” in America’s economic engine, there’s still a sense that many people are still trapped in economic despair, feeling the impact of the recession.

After scanning through “Diminished Lives and Futures: A Portrait of America in the Great-Recession Era,” I can see that uneasiness and worry remains a real issue in the minds of Americans. (Source: Szeltner, S., et al., Worktrends February 2013, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey web site, last accessed February 12, 2013.)

Some of the key findings of the research were as follows:

• About 90% of the respondents remained worried about … Read More

Shocking Investment Idea No One’s Talking About—Yet

By Sasha Cekerevac for Investment Contrarians | Feb 6, 2013

Shocking Investment Idea One of the most important factors to consider and one of the most difficult to comprehend when it comes to the market is investor sentiment. Investor sentiment is usually far ahead of both the general public and the economic data.

A perfect example is how investor sentiment in the housing sector was clearly far ahead of the recent data showing strength for the homebuilder stocks and new home construction.

One stock that has performed quite well lately is Ford Motor Company (NYSE/F). Many times last year, when much of the public was negative on the economy and housing, Ford came out with extremely strong results. Of course, this is partially due to their pickup truck division, which is directly correlated with the boom in new home construction.

For the fourth quarter of 2012, Ford reported the highest pretax profit in over a decade, with $1.7 billion, a huge jump of $577 million from the fourth quarter of 2011. For the full year, Ford reported a pretax profit of $8.0 billion, and the firm ended 2012 with a gross cash level of $24.3 billion. (Source: “Ford Posts Highest Fourth Quarter Pre-Tax Profit in More Than a Decade,” Ford Motor Company web site, January 29, 2013, last accessed February 4, 2013.)

However, a big problem for Ford, along with many other automotive stocks, has been the eurozone. Ford’s revenues in the eurozone dropped from $33.8 billion for the full year 2011 to $26.6 billion in 2012. The company is making strategic revisions to its eurozone division.

We all know the eurozone has been in trouble for quite a long time. Recent data … Read More