What a Great Strategy: Need Money? Print More Money
By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | Dec 14, 2012
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has spoken, and to no one’s surprise, the printing of money in America will continue and intensify under the soon-to-be newly launched “Quantitative Easing 4” program, or “QE4.” So now we have had several Federal Reserve programs to keep the flow of money going, and now it looks like there will be more money printing.
Under this aggressive money printing strategy, the Federal Reserve will pursue a more aggressive stimulus strategy in September that will involve the additional monthly buying of $45.0 billion in longer-term treasuries on top of the existing $40.0 billion monthly buying of mortgage-backed bonds under QE3. (Source: Press release, Federal Reserve, December 12, 2012.) The concern is that the additional buying of bonds will add another trillion dollars to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in 2013, driving the amount up to $4.0 trillion and keeping the money-printing machine going.
While the aggressive move by the Federal Reserve is needed to make sure the U.S. economic recovery doesn’t falter, many are concerned that the easy money will drive inflation higher. Of course, this has yet to happen, as consumers appear more worried about paying down debt levels than spending. The Federal Reserve suggests it would keep interest rates near zero as long as the unemployment rate hovers above 6.5% and inflation remains manageable.
The market view on the Federal Reserve appears to be unfavorable, based on the initial reaction following the announcement of QE4. Based on the Federal Reserve’s assessment, there’s concern that the U.S. jobs picture and economy may be worse than we expect. “Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat … Read More
Why Printing Money Is So Easy for the Fed
By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | Dec 12, 2012
The Federal Reserve is busy looking at what to do next to try to keep the economic renewal on track, as the central bank meets for the last time this year. The Fed also understands its impact will be hindered by the ongoing battle in Congress regarding the pending fiscal cliff.
The Federal Reserve is speculated to continue its third quantitative easing (QE3) program of buying mortgage bonds each month. The effect will see the Fed increase its holdings of mortgage bonds to nearly $4.0 trillion, according to a Bloomberg survey. (Source: “Fed Seen Pumping Up Assets to $4 Trillion in New Buying,” Yahoo! Finance via Bloomberg, December 11, 2012.)
The bond buying has helped to ease financing rates and drive the housing market higher.
The Fed has spent $40.0 billion a month to buy mortgage-backed securities and, in theory, lower the financing rates. The yield on the 10-year Treasury stands at 1.6% versus 1.8% prior to the establishment of QE3—so it’s working.
For the Fed, as the QE3 works its way through the system, job creation is expected to be a major benefactor.
The Federal Reserve recognizes that the jobs market continues to be problematic and needs to be addressed, despite the unemployment rate falling to 7.7% in November. There are still over 21 million Americans looking for work.
To date, the super-low interest rates at between zero and a quarter of a percent have helped to prevent the country from falling into the abyss. If not for the low rates, the carrying cost of the $16.0 trillion in national debt would be suffocating and making the situation worse, … Read More
Gold Bullion Forecast for 2013
By Sasha Cekerevac for Investment Contrarians | Nov 26, 2012
Gold bullion has had a fairly volatile year in 2012. At the end of 2011, gold bullion sold off sharply, ending December at a weak point. A lot of this, I believe, was a result of hedge funds being forced to liquidate their positions. Investors in gold bullion should be aware of the flow of funds from institutional investors. Because of the huge amount of capital that institutions have, they can certainly have an outsized impact on any market, not just gold bullion.
Once a fund has liquidated its position, the selling ends and the underlying fundamentals take over. For 2012, we’ve seen further price appreciation for gold bullion beginning in August on anticipation for accelerated monetary policy stimulus (more money printing) from the Federal Reserve.
That is exactly what we got from the Federal Reserve, a very aggressive monetary policy initiative that has no end date. This type of monetary policy action is unprecedented for the Federal Reserve. As is so often the case, investors bought on the rumor and sold on the fact. Following the September announcement for the new monetary policy initiative, a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), gold bullion sold off with the rest of the market.
To be honest, this is to be expected, considering the large move in gold bullion. Nothing moves up in a straight line. Once the markets tested the $1,800 level, considering gold bullion moved up from approximately $1,550, some profit-taking was to be expected. The key question for me was: at what point would investors step back into the gold bullion market?
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
This one-year chart … Read More
Dear Mr. President: Now It’s Time to Deliver on Your Promises
By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | Nov 7, 2012
By the time you are reading this, either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will have won the race to be the 45th President of the United States.
Yet I will remind the winner that there’s not much time to rejoice in the victory, as there’s plenty of work ahead, which will dictate the direction of America over the next four years in relation to debt, job creation, economic growth, and foreign policy.
Whoever has won, they need to work on job creation at a much stronger rate than the current pace. All those promises that were made during the election campaign must now be acted upon. We need to create strong job creation and sustained jobs growth, while lowering the unemployment rate. The Federal Reserve is cautious about job creation into 2013. Obama and Romney have different strategies for lowering the unemployment rate and increasing job creation. But the reality is that unless Americans are put back to work, the economic recovery will likely stall and add to a possible financial crisis.
The most immediate concern for the next president will be what to do about the pending fiscal cliff on January 1, 2013, which calls for $607.0 billion in automatic budget cuts to avert a financial crisis. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently warned that the U.S. economy could contract in 2013 if the spending cuts are allowed, which would impact job creation. (Source: Congressional Budget Office, last accessed November 6, 2012.) I expect the same.
At a round table meeting of the Group of Twenty Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (G-20), there was talk of the U.S. … Read More
Many Wildcards That Could Throw a Wrench into the Economy
By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | Oct 30, 2012
In a week’s time, we will know who the next President of the United States will be; this will be critical, giving us an indication of where America is heading as far as policy and the impact on the economic recovery. The latest poll by CNN has the race to the White House in a dead heat, with Governor Mitt Romney slightly ahead at 48% of the votes and President Obama at 47%. In the key Ohio race, support for Obama has fallen from 52% on October 2 to the current 48%, according to CNN.
At this point, based on my unbiased view, I don’t really care who wins, but I do want something to be done about job creation, the $16.2 trillion in U.S. debt, and the pending “fiscal cliff.”
Whether you are a Democrat or a Republican, there is a commonality: we need to get the country fixed and get it going on the correct path to the economic recovery and jobs for all. The unemployment rate fell below eight percent in September, but the reading is well below the four percent level we saw in 2006 and 2007. The unemployment rate has improved from the recession high of 10.0% in October 2009, but needs to work its way lower for a sustained economic recovery.
What concerns me is the current lack of focus on the pending fiscal cliff on January 1, when the terms of the Budget Control Act of 2011 are scheduled to go into effect, resulting in automatic spending cuts across the board and tax increases that will threaten the economic recovery.
Of course, there … Read More
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