There are several definitions of global recession, but the most common definition used by many, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), considers it global recession to occur when global growth is less than three percent per year. Generally speaking, a global recession is one in which many, if not most, parts of the world are in decline. While developed nations might be considered to be in recession with two quarters of declines in gross domestic product (GDP), a global recession cannot be measured in the same fashion, because emerging markets need higher growth rates.
With the stock market at all-time highs, the momentum has been built on the belief that an economic recovery is close at hand and the world will avoid a global recession. However, new data show that perhaps this belief might be too optimistic.
Markit Economics has just released the Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for many nations and economic zones around the world. Frankly, the data are quite bleak, showing that an economic recovery is certainly not occurring anytime soon, and that a global recession is becoming a distinct possibility.
For April, the U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI (early reading) came in at 52, versus expectations of 53.8, and last month’s data point of 54.6. Just a reminder: a PMI number above 50 is a sign of growth; below 50 is a sign of contraction. (Source: “Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI,” Markit Economics web site, April 23, 2013.)
While the U.S. manufacturing PMI data still show expansion, the decline was significant, as was the degree by which it missed expectations. This April PMI reading for the U.S. was the lowest in six months, and is an indication that the economic recovery in the manufacturing sector is starting to slow.
The PMI composite for the entire eurozone was a very poor 46.5 in April, down slightly from expectations of 46.8. While the reading was unchanged from March, it is worrisome that there were no improvements at all. There is no current economic recovery in Europe; in fact, this reading indicates that economic activity has declined for 19 of the last 20 months.
Is a global recession very far away? Obviously, predicting the future … Read More
One of the most worrying signs from the latest batch of economic data is that the global recession might be reappearing. Central banks around the world have been attempting to fuel their economies through massive stimulus, yet these efforts appear to be failing.
Increasingly, the earnings outlook for a number of companies continues to be quite poor for the remainder of the year. This is giving me pause for thought, because these poor outlooks raise the chances that another global recession will occur.
Last week’s data from the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. indicated a drop in March. This was the first drop in seven months—certainly a negative move away from the chance of averting another global recession.
More importantly, the Conference Board’s outlook for the next three to six months dropped 0.1% in March, below the median forecast by a survey conducted by Bloomberg. (Source: Smialek, J., et al., “Leading Index’s Drop Points to Slower U.S. Growth: Economy,” Bloomberg, April 18, 2013.)
Manufacturing also declined, as indicated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reporting that its factory index dropped to 1.3 in April from 2.0 in March. (Source: “March’s Coincident Indexes Show Increased Economic Activity in 47 States,” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia web site, last accessed April 23, 2013.) This was a significant reversal from the median forecast, in which expectations were for the index to rise to 3.0.
How does this affect the earnings outlook for corporations? Many companies have been expecting that the global recession could be averted, as each company’s revenue and earnings outlook last fall was fairly positive for 2013. … Read More
With the world economy slowing, it is possible that we could see a global recession in 2013. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth for many countries has significantly declined in the third quarter of 2012. While some countries experienced an increase in GDP growth in the first part of the year, it’s quite apparent going into the third quarter that, for most nations, the estimates were far too high.
One recent example of the economic decline that’s occurring in various nations around the world is Brazil’s mere 0.6% GDP growth in the third quarter, compared to a survey conducted by Bloomberg of 54 economists that had estimated a 1.2% increase in GDP growth. (Source: “Brazil GDP Growth at Half Forecasted Pace as Investment Dives,” Bloomberg, November 30, 2012.)
Two interesting points are apparent. First, the significant decline in Brazilian GDP growth increases the possibility of a global recession in 2013; and second, the country’s economy has some similarities with America that we should be cognizant of.
In America, retail sales, including car sales, have remained somewhat resilient, even though the economy has been weak. In Brazil, the situation is quite similar, as retail sales increased 8.5% in September from the same time in 2011. Yet industrial production in Brazil fell 2.8% in the third quarter, as compared to the same quarter in 2011. (Source: “Brazil GDP Growth at Half Forecasted Pace as Investment Dives,” Bloomberg, November 30, 2012.)
While America certainly has larger issues, our third-quarter GDP growth was 2.7%, versus an annualized GDP growth rate for Brazil of only 2.4%. A big issue for both countries is not the willingness … Read More
The subprime credit crisis that surfaced in 2008 drove Lehman Brothers to bankruptcy, along with causing significant upheaval and driving the U.S. and global economies into a global recession. The aftermath was a structural change to the way banks do business, specifically, the amount of risk assumed by a bank via sophisticated strategies.
The majority of the big banks have paid back part or all of the government loans. Bank stocks are showing promise and the third-quarter results are expected to provide some upside surprises. Of course, the impact from the stalled European economies is a wildcard.
The chart of the Philadelphia Bank Index shows the upward move of bank stocks from the 2011 bottom. Banks staged a nice rally, but retrenched in March to May 2012 on the European bank concerns and after Moody’s Investor Services downgraded the sector. The group has since staged a rally back to above the 50- and 200-day moving averages.
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com.
Moody’s grew a bit wary about the big U.S. bank stocks, especially given their continued appetite for risk in trying to attain profits. The reality is that the big money for banks lies with investment banking and trading, and not personal and commercial banking.
A bank can make billions from a single high-gamble trade. Could you imagine how long it would take to make this from fees for retail banking? This is the reason why many of the bigger bank stocks continue to trade speculatively despite the establishment of the Volcker Rule, proposed by economist and ex-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker to restrict some speculative activities. The reality is that … Read More