Eurozone

Formally established in 1993, the eurozone, often referred to as the “European Union,” is a political and economic union established after the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty by members of the European Community. It has since expanded to include some Central and Eastern European nations. The establishment of the eurozone provided for the creation of a central European bank and the adoption of a common currency: the euro. The idea behind the eurozone is to create a single geographical market where goods, services, and money can be exchanged freely.

The New Hidden Eurozone Risk

By Sasha Cekerevac for Investment Contrarians | May 16, 2013

New Hidden Eurozone Risk Complacency among investors is extremely dangerous. Many investors, both retail and institutional, have very short memory spans.

It wasn’t too long ago that the eurozone was in the midst of a financial crisis. While the worst appears to be over—at least temporarily—economic growth still remains elusive for the eurozone.

Yet in spite of all the dangers, investors have returned to the eurozone en masse. Spain recently sold one-year bills yielding just 0.994%, the lowest since 2010. Demand is extremely strong for these periphery nations, even though it’s clear that many parts of the eurozone are lacking economic growth.

Currently, Spanish 10-year bonds yield approximately 4.29%, which is down from last summer when they were yielding 7.75%. (Source: Benoit, A., et al., “Spain Sells Bill at 3-Year Low Yield as Banks Hired for Bond,” Bloomberg, May 14, 2013, accessed May 14, 2013.)

Investors are becoming complacent yet again. Instead of simply dipping their toes into the water, they’re plunging into some of the riskier parts of the eurozone that have the least potential for economic growth, and these investors are hoping that if things don’t work out, the European Central Bank (ECB) will bail them out.

The danger is that the ECB has previously stated that it will only consider short-term duration investments for possible support, not the long-term bonds. Either way, economic growth needs to re-ignite for long-term investments in the eurozone to make sense.

However, recent data from even the strongest eurozone member, Germany, indicate that a rebound in economic growth is far from certain.

According to the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), its index of investor expectations … Read More

Why the Eurozone Recession Is Important for America

By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | May 1, 2013

Eurozone Recession Is Important for America George Soros knows a thing or two about making money from big bets. In 1992, Soros made a $10.00 short wager on the British pound and walked away with a billion dollars in profits.

Soros is now convinced Germany needs to rethink its strategy toward the sustainability of the eurozone and, in a draconian manner, believes the country should leave the euro.

Of course, should this happen, the 17-country eurozone would collapse, triggering a massive economic Armageddon and financial crisis in Europe that would ultimately generate chaos for the global economy.

Now, I doubt Germany or France—the two pillars integral to the eurozone—will exit the euro, but the reality is that the situation in the economic zone remains in a financial crisis with little hope of revival.

The problem is that the eurozone is firmly in a financial crisis and recession, trying to find its way out.

Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy are a drag on the ability of the eurozone to get out of its financial crisis. The unemployment rate in Greece and Spain is over 25% and worsening.

Italy just formed a new government, but there’s tons of work left for that debt-ridden country before it can exit its own financial crisis that has been building for years.

With all of this bad news, it’s not surprising to see people in the eurozone feeling the despair. According to the European Commission, economic morale in the eurozone remains weak after declining in March and April. (Source: Emmot, R., “Economic mood in euro zone sours again in April,” Reuters, April 29, 2013.)

And it appears that the solution will again … Read More

Global Economy Still at Risk, Just Look at the Jobs Picture

By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | Apr 24, 2013

Global Economy Still at Risk Consistent jobs growth remains an issue here in the U.S.

We also know that the lack of jobs is a worldwide problem that is only made worse by the world’s growing population and the stalling global economy.

The reasoning behind this worldwide jobs problem is simple.

Jobs are created when the economy expands, which drives the need for more workers. Of course, modern technology, industrial efficiencies, and the increased use of robots all combine to pressure jobs growth, and I expect this pressure to continue.

Just take a look at China. In that country’s vast manufacturing landscape, the key driver is the masses of unskilled workers who are required to toil at their workstations for 12 hours or more each day.

China’s companies can make use of robotics to help in many of the assembly areas, but it seems that these companies use human labor instead—perhaps because creating jobs for the masses is a goal of communist China.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China’s unemployment rate has managed to hold pretty steady at just over four percent since 2003. In 2012, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, the same as in 2010 and 2011, and the estimate for 2013. (Source: “China: Unemployment rate from 2003 to 2013,” Statista web site, last accessed April 23, 2013.)

But in the more industrialized countries, like the United States and countries in Europe, there has been a move toward modern industrial techniques and the use of robotics.

And while America struggles to create jobs growth, the situation is extremely dismal in Europe.

As I commented in these pages a few weeks back, the … Read More

Eurozone Could Collapse Sooner Than Many Think

By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | Apr 12, 2013

120413_IC_leong The eurozone and the euro are still around, but the more I see what is happening in that region, the more I think something must be done, given the financial crisis.

You have the eurozone in a recession and a financial crisis specifically driven by turmoil in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, and Ireland.

Greece is broke, and it could take decades to recover from its financial crisis. Heck, Greece may have to go and ask for another round of bailout money if the financial crisis in the eurozone holds.

The financial crisis in Cyprus is a red flag that needs to be watched. And despite the small size of Cyprus’ economy, the country is a mess, with no recourse but to seek more bailout funds or risk a default and exit the euro.

The two pillars of the eurozone, Germany and France, are stalling. Germany contracted 0.6% in the fourth quarter and is another negative quarter away from a recession. France is in a similar predicament and will need to wrench its way out of its potential financial crisis.

Even big-time investor George Soros, who knows a thing or two about economies in trouble having made a billion dollars shorting the pound decades ago, is pretty convinced that Germany needs to rethink its strategy and consider leaving the euro to avoid its own financial crisis.

The problem that arises is that Germany is the major reason why the eurozone is still intact, when it maybe should have looked at kicking out Greece and Cyprus.

But as long as Germany is staying in the eurozone, the probability of survival, in … Read More

If Cyprus Fails, So Will Your Investments

By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | Mar 26, 2013

If Cyprus Fails, So Will Your Investments There is a potential financial crisis brewing in Cyprus, and no one in the U.S. really seems to be that concerned. Just like our out-of-control national debt, sequestration, and growing number of unemployed and poor. Stocks continue to move higher, and it appears as though nothing can stop them.

There is clearly a financial crisis in the eurozone, which I feel traders in the U.S. have largely pushed aside during the American stock market rally.

In Cyprus, we all know the government tried to place a tax on all bank deposits in an attempt to raise $7.6 billion in capital as part of the country’s bailout deal. The strategy was turned down; so here we have the tiny island of Cyprus in the Mediterranean Sea where the estimated gross domestic product (GDP) of $22.45 billion in 2012 (source: International Monetary Fund) would be ranked dead last amongst the U.S. states, finishing behind Wyoming with just over $25.0 billion in GDP in 2011 (source: U.S. Department of Commerce).

So what’s the deal with Cyprus, and why should you be concerned?

While Cyprus is tiny and pretty well insignificant as far as its economic clout goes, a financial crisis, especially within the country’s fragile banking system, could drive widespread mistrust and confidence issues throughout the eurozone. This is the concern; that Cyprus could foreshadow a deeper financial crisis in the problematic regions of Italy, Spain, and Portugal.

Greece went through its financial crisis roller coaster, including two bailouts, and it is currently surviving on loans and credit. It’s going to take decades for Greece to recover from its financial crisis.

The fear … Read More