Latest updates and analysis on dividend yield 2013.
A dividend is a portion of earnings that is distributed to shareholders of the company. To calculate the dividend yield, which is the annual percentage return based on an initial investment, take the annual distribution by the company and divide it by the priced paid for the company stock. This is one way to compare the payout of different investments. For instance, if an investor views two companies equally, but one has a dividend yield of two percent and one a dividend yield of three percent, then the investor would choose the stock with the three-percent dividend yield to obtain a greater return on his/her money. The investor would purchase that stock because the dividends paid to the investor as a percentage of the investor’s purchase price are greater than when buying the stock that will return a two-percent dividend yield—as a percentage of the purchase price. Of course, this is only part of the calculation you make when deciding whether or not to buy the stock. There are many more factors to consider.
We all know that the stock market has moved up significantly over the past few months. The real question is: is the move up based on the belief that there is enough economic growth available for corporate earnings to continue rising, or is it simply due to a flow of funds?
Let’s analyze this question by taking a look at Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE/WMT). Wal-Mart just released its forecast for second-quarter corporate earnings, which was less than most analysts had expected. The company now forecasts corporate earnings on a per-share basis for the second quarter to be $1.22–$1.27, lower than the average estimate by analysts of $1.29. (Source: “Walmart reports a 4.6 percent increase for Q1 EPS of $1.14; U.S. businesses forecast positive comp sales for Q2,” Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. web site, May 16, 2013, accessed May 16, 2013.)
As a sign of the health of America’s economic growth level, Wal-Mart reported that comparable same-store sales dropped by 1.4% between January 26, 2013 and April 26, 2013. Internationally, Wal-Mart is doing better, with sales up 2.9% during the first quarter.
However, corporate earnings suffered during the first quarter due to several reasons, including very cold weather, continuing weak employment levels, and the payroll tax hike. Many businesses that cater to the lower- to mid-level consumer will most likely encounter similar problems due to these issues and general sluggish economic growth.
Recent data have been relatively mixed regarding the potential for economic growth to begin moving upward. However, for Wal-Mart’s corporate earnings, there is the potential for a slightly stronger second half because some of the company’s initial hurdles have been … Read More
If you invested all of your money in the stock market, you would be exposed to extraordinary risk of a market retrenchment.
Of course, you could also make a lot of money, especially with how well things are going in the current bullish stock market that continues to somewhat defy gravity.
Yet this is also the time you need to take some extra precaution and think about where you are at and what your end goal is in the stock market.
You don’t want to risk your entire investing capital on the stock market, in spite of any temptation to do so. This is when you have to fight against the greed that might be in you—the greed that’s in most of us—and it won’t be easy.
Remember what happened after each of the multiyear peaks in the stock market over the past decades, when the stocks retrenched. I’m not saying the stock market is at a peak. In fact, the bulls look like they are in full control and heading higher on the chart.
You just need to be on top of things, and don’t let greed ravage your sensibility toward the stock market.
Chasing dreams is one thing, but being prudent is another.
I’m not going to say you should run for the exit, but you need to be aware of where your capital is being invested and understand the associated risk factors.
The reality is that a sound investment strategy means understanding asset allocation and diversification to increase the risk and return of your portfolio.
By asset allocation, I refer to the asset mix of your portfolio … Read More
One of the biggest worries for investors is the anemic economic growth globally. This has made it extremely difficult to generate corporate earnings going forward. As investors, we are constantly looking for signs that a firm has the ability to increase corporate earnings substantially for the near future.
Ultimately, for corporate earnings to move upward, revenues need to increase as well. With the lack of economic growth internationally, this is becoming a serious problem.
As an example of the extent of weak economic growth internationally, McDonalds Corporation (NYSE/MCD) posted a drop of 0.6% for comparable same-store sales in April. (Source: “McDonald’s global comparable sales decreased 0.6% in April,” McDonalds Corporation web site, May 8 2013, accessed May 13, 2013.)
The company saw its comparable same-store sales in Europe decrease by 2.4%, and the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and African (APMEA) regions reported a 2.9% drop in same-store sales. Most analysts were expecting a drop of only one percent in Europe and a 1.4% drop for the APMEA region.
A positive note showing the disparity in economic growth was that same-store sales for the U.S. increased 0.7%, versus expectations of a slight decline. As weak as the U.S. is regarding economic growth, much of the rest of the world is in worse shape.
One worry for investors looking at the potential for corporate earnings growth is that much of the sales push by McDonalds has been in lower-priced items. This means that, while revenues might be running at a similar pace, margins will drop.
The chart for McDonalds is featured below:
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
McDonalds’ stock has performed quite well over … Read More
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied for 10 straight days and, in the process, established several record highs. And while the Wall Street bulls are glorifying the upward move, I continue to believe a correction is on the way—I just can’t tell you when or by how much. The thing I would warn you against is chasing dividends on Dow stocks. The average dividend yield on the 30 Dow stocks currently sits around 2.82%.
The top-five dividend yields belong to AT&T Inc. (NYSE/T), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ/INTC), Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE/VZ), Merck & Co., Inc (NYSE/MRK), and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ/MSFT). The problem with chasing the dividends on these stocks is that I feel there is limited upside in the share price appreciation potential at this point.
A contrarian trade you can play is employing the “Dogs of the Dow” investment strategy, which is simple and has beaten the Dow on average since 1972. The five companies included in this group are the lowest-priced stocks.
The theory is that these Dow companies are facing some issues, but with a turnaround, they can generate some above-average returns and, as such, are viewed as contrarian stocks.
Let’s take a look at the strategy.
At the close of March 15, the five dogs of the Dow were:
1. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE/AA; $8.58)
2. Bank of America Corporation (NYSE/BAC; $12.38)
3. Intel ($21.20)
4. Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ/CSCO; $21.68)
5. Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE/HPQ; $22.42)
Now take a look at the results, assuming you bought these five dog stocks based on the close on December 31, 2012 with the advance to March 18.
The table shows four … Read More
When it comes to long-term investing, one factor that needs to be considered is that the dividend yield can provide a large portion of the total return. While everyone likes to pick the highflier that will move up a tremendous amount, the truth is that having a portfolio of stocks that continually increase their dividend yield can help increase total returns of a portfolio.
It is expected that for 2013, S&P 500 companies will pay out at least $300 billion in dividends. This is an even higher amount than the $282 billion paid in dividends for 2012. (Source: Demos, T., Russolillo, S., and Jarzemsky, M., “Firms send record cash back to investors,” Wall Street Journal, March 7, 2013.)
Long-term investing that incorporates companies issuing a stable and increasing dividend yield over time can help mitigate the gyrations of the market.
Not only are corporations flush with cash and looking to pay an attractive dividend yield as compared to U.S. Treasuries, but companies are also buying back record levels of shares.
According to Birinyi Associates Inc., in February, corporations announced a total of $117.8 billion in share buybacks, the highest monthly total since 1985.
Generally speaking, both share buybacks and issuing a dividend yield are positive for long-term investing. However, I do worry that companies are buying back shares at levels that are elevated.
I think it would be far more beneficial for long-term investing if corporations had a flexible approach regarding paying back cash. Meaning, when the stock price declines, corporations should then accelerate share buybacks, and when their share prices are up significantly, corporations should increase their dividend yields…. Read More