Debt Crisis

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Higher Inflation Rate Expected; Long-Term Investors in Danger?

By Sasha Cekerevac for Investment Contrarians | May 9, 2013

Higher Inflation Rate One of the biggest concerns for investors when it comes to long-term investing is the safe return of their capital. Following the 6.75% levy imposed by Cyprus on deposits of less than 100,000 euros, many investors were shocked that such an event could take place.

Certainly, long-term investing does have risks, including a hidden hazard of the possibility that a rising inflation rate will erode wealth just as easily as the levy imposed by Cyprus on bank deposits.

A study done by The Economist showed that people in the U.S. who placed their capital in six-month certificates of deposit (CDs) from 2009 until 2012 earned 3.2% (before tax). Many believe that a CD is among the safest of short-term investments. However, the inflation rate was 6.6% during this time period, resulting in a loss of wealth for the investor of 3.2%. (Source: “The financial-repression levy,” The Economist, March 23, 2013.)

While bank depositors in Cyprus are in an uproar over the one-time levy, American investors have also been hit with a loss of wealth of approximately 3.2% during a three-year period due to inflation, as noted above. Now, imagine the full impact on long-term investing over many years and decades as the inflation rate erodes wealth.

Understanding the real impact of the rate of inflation should alter one’s portfolio allocation when it comes to long-term investing. Simply placing capital in U.S. Treasury notes will not have the rate of return that investors need for retirement.

Many people only look at the nominal return, and not the real return on an investment. Remember, regardless of what the expected return is, for … Read More

Why the Eurozone Recession Is Important for America

By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | May 1, 2013

Eurozone Recession Is Important for America George Soros knows a thing or two about making money from big bets. In 1992, Soros made a $10.00 short wager on the British pound and walked away with a billion dollars in profits.

Soros is now convinced Germany needs to rethink its strategy toward the sustainability of the eurozone and, in a draconian manner, believes the country should leave the euro.

Of course, should this happen, the 17-country eurozone would collapse, triggering a massive economic Armageddon and financial crisis in Europe that would ultimately generate chaos for the global economy.

Now, I doubt Germany or France—the two pillars integral to the eurozone—will exit the euro, but the reality is that the situation in the economic zone remains in a financial crisis with little hope of revival.

The problem is that the eurozone is firmly in a financial crisis and recession, trying to find its way out.

Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy are a drag on the ability of the eurozone to get out of its financial crisis. The unemployment rate in Greece and Spain is over 25% and worsening.

Italy just formed a new government, but there’s tons of work left for that debt-ridden country before it can exit its own financial crisis that has been building for years.

With all of this bad news, it’s not surprising to see people in the eurozone feeling the despair. According to the European Commission, economic morale in the eurozone remains weak after declining in March and April. (Source: Emmot, R., “Economic mood in euro zone sours again in April,” Reuters, April 29, 2013.)

And it appears that the solution will again … Read More

Eurozone Could Collapse Sooner Than Many Think

By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | Apr 12, 2013

120413_IC_leong The eurozone and the euro are still around, but the more I see what is happening in that region, the more I think something must be done, given the financial crisis.

You have the eurozone in a recession and a financial crisis specifically driven by turmoil in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, and Ireland.

Greece is broke, and it could take decades to recover from its financial crisis. Heck, Greece may have to go and ask for another round of bailout money if the financial crisis in the eurozone holds.

The financial crisis in Cyprus is a red flag that needs to be watched. And despite the small size of Cyprus’ economy, the country is a mess, with no recourse but to seek more bailout funds or risk a default and exit the euro.

The two pillars of the eurozone, Germany and France, are stalling. Germany contracted 0.6% in the fourth quarter and is another negative quarter away from a recession. France is in a similar predicament and will need to wrench its way out of its potential financial crisis.

Even big-time investor George Soros, who knows a thing or two about economies in trouble having made a billion dollars shorting the pound decades ago, is pretty convinced that Germany needs to rethink its strategy and consider leaving the euro to avoid its own financial crisis.

The problem that arises is that Germany is the major reason why the eurozone is still intact, when it maybe should have looked at kicking out Greece and Cyprus.

But as long as Germany is staying in the eurozone, the probability of survival, in … Read More

How to Profit from Bank of Japan’s Aggressive Money Printing

By Sasha Cekerevac for Investment Contrarians | Apr 9, 2013

Profit from Bank of Japan’s Aggressive Money Printing Last week, the new governor for the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Haruhiko Kuroda, announced a game changer for that nation’s quantitative easing policies. The BOJ now plans to initiate monthly bond purchases in the amount of 7.5 trillion yen (US$77.8 billion) per month in an attempt to increase inflation to two percent within the next two years.

When it comes to creating an investment strategy based on this quantitative easing policy, there are two initial takeaways. The first is that this will put pressure on the Japanese yen to weaken its value; the second is that stocks will rise within that nation, since many firms are exporters and will benefit from this quantitative easing plan.

This investment strategy has already begun, as large institutional investors have started front-running this announcement, starting with the election of the new Prime Minister of Japan last fall. However, the country is just about to embark on this new aggressive quantitative easing plan that will last approximately two years—if not longer. There is still plenty of time to profit from an investment strategy using this quantitative easing announcement as a catalyst.

The Japanese yen has already weakened, but it’s poised for additional decline with such an aggressive quantitative easing policy. One investment strategy is to consider the possibility of shorting the yen. Recently, George Soros and Bill Gross stated that this quantitative easing policy could significantly push the yen down further than most people believe.

Soros commented, “If the yen starts to fall, which it has done, and people in Japan realize that it’s liable to continue and want to put their money abroad, then … Read More

Why Japan’s Aggressive Money Tree Is Disastrous

By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | Apr 8, 2013

Japan’s Aggressive Money Tree Is Disastrous The world is going gangbusters, printing money to drive the economies and growth. Yet despite the bailouts in the eurozone and easy monetary policy in Europe, Asia, and the U.S., there’s a sense a financial crisis could surface down the road. China is facing a potential real estate crash that could implode, given the speculative buying and the rise in property values. The reality is that the world—not just America—is extremely busy printing money, especially due to record-low interest rates. The easy money is a pretty good short-term strategy, and it’s much needed—but what a potentially explosive national debt!

And there’s no guarantee all of this easy money will save the eurozone from a deeper recession. In America, the easy money has amounted to a massive national debt that will need to be increased and bankruptcy in many municipalities.

Japan just announced an extremely aggressive monetary policy last Thursday that could see the Bank of Japan pump up its money printing presses and double its government bond holdings within two years. (Source: Ranasinghe, D., “Bank of Japan Unveils Aggressive Monetary Policy,” CNBC, April 4, 2013.) This all sounds so familiar.

I hate to sound repetitive, but the easy money strategy could blow up as interest rates rise.

Japan is a great example of how low interest rates have done very little to help the economy. I’m not saying the United States is in a similar situation, but there’s an eerie resemblance.

The Japanese stock market may be the top-performing market in the world in 2013, but much of the upward push has been driven by government spending and the promise … Read More