China

China is the country with the largest population in the world at over 1.3 billion people. The land covers approximately 3.7 million square miles. The country is governed as a communist country, although they have developed a quasi-capitalist sector for business. China has the second largest gross domestic product (GDP) at approximately $7.0 trillion; behind the U.S. at $15.0 trillion and ahead of Japan at $5.8 trillion. The leaders opened up the centrally planned economy in the late 1970s and early 1980s to allow economic growth through trade, which has allowed China to grow at an unprecedented rate for a country its size. From 2001 to 2011, China grew at an annualized rate of 10.5%.

Changes to International Tariffs Giving This Stock a Boost

By Sasha Cekerevac for Investment Contrarians | May 17, 2013

Changes to International Tariffs When it comes to buying stocks for long-term investing, the short-term gyrations can be difficult for investors. It’s important from a long-term investing viewpoint to look out onto the horizon over many years, and search for short-term pullbacks and opportunities that might allow attractive entry points.

We are all aware of the troubled situation economically in Europe; however, there are still potential opportunities for buying stocks that could benefit from significant market changes when it comes to long-term investing.

One example is the automobile industry. While no one would suggest that Europe is a strong sector for growth in automobiles, don’t discount the carmakers when considering buying stocks. Volkswagen AG (OTC/VLKAY) is continuing to set the foundation for growth globally over the next decade.

The company’s Audi division is continuing to make inroads in many markets, including India, China, and the U.S. Additionally, a decrease in tariffs for many countries is now opening the door for European automobile makers to gain market share.

South Korea recently dropped the import duty on European vehicles from eight percent to only 3.2%, which has resulted in an increase of foreign automobiles making up 41% of the South Korean market versus 28% just two years ago. (Source: Kim, R., “BMWs Cheaper Than Hyundais in Korea as Tariffs Crumble,” Bloomberg, May 15, 2013, accessed May 15, 2013.)

The U.S. has also cut tariffs for imported cars substantially and will completely eliminate them by 2016. This will open the door for competition, and vehicles such as Audis, which are of premium quality, have the potential to gain market share.

Volkswagen is continuing its expansion in emerging … Read More

SEC Raises Requirement for Chinese Companies for U.S. Listings; Chinese Companies Looking Elsewhere

By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | May 15, 2013

SEC Raises Requirement for Chinese Companies Chinese initial public offerings (IPOs) could be hot again this year, but don’t look to America as the breeding grounds: the flow to the U.S. is dead.

The big market for Chinese IPOs will be at home in China where there could be as many as 349 IPOs this year, according to a calculation by Goldman Sachs. (Source: “IPO deep dive: The Sword of Damocles or Paper Tiger?,” Goldman Sachs web site, January 23, 2013, last accessed May 14, 2013.) Of course, we have seen only a trickle this year, so the Goldman estimate seems to be more fiction than fact.

In the U.S., there are no Chinese IPOs scheduled for the immediate future, a stark contrast to the 60 Chinese stocks that debuted on U.S. equities markets from 2008 to 2011.

The more recent numbers look even worse, and tell us a tale of misfortune for Chinese IPOs.

In 2012, there was one Chinese listing on U.S. equities markets, but we saw the delisting of several Chinese stocks that have been taken private. Since August 2011, 23 Chinese stocks have delisted from U.S. equities markets, according to Money Week magazine.

Based on what I have been reading, I doubt that there will be much activity this year or next for Chinese IPOs, unless the rules of engagement for financial reporting and auditing are made better and meet U.S. standards. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) wants any Chinese company aiming for access to U.S. capital markets to use one of four approved U.S. Big Four auditors. That request is fine, but the problem lies in the SEC also wanting … Read More

China’s Economic Reporting: Fact or Fiction?

By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | May 10, 2013

China’s Economic Reporting There’s something fishy going on with China’s economic data—at least with those figures that are reported by the Chinese government. The reality in those numbers has always been questionable.

Are the economic data compiled and reported by the Chinese government agencies correct and reliable? Are we seeing a major scam developing out of the country?

While there has been lingering doubts on the reliability of Chinese data, no one has yet proven the Chinese are fudging the numbers.

But you know that this is a real possibility.

I’m a Chinese bull, but I must admit I’m always concerned when evaluating the financials of Chinese companies; the proven corruption in the past several years has made me think long and hard about what and whom to trust.

I have been burned by Chinese stocks, but so have many of you.

The potential issues with the Chinese economic numbers may also be true. Case in point: in the first quarter, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 7.7%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That percentage was down from 7.9% in the fourth quarter.

We have also been seeing a decline in manufacturing data, including the country’s internally produced Purchasing Managers’ Index and other external manufacturing reports.

The country’s industrial value-added output growth expanded at 9.5% in the first quarter, down from 11.6% in the first quarter in 2012, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. (Source: “China’s Q1 industrial output growth slows to 9.5 pct,” Global Times, April 15, 2013, last accessed May 9, 2013.)

Given all of this, it was quite a surprise to see China’s exports surge 14.7% … Read More

S&P 500 Companies: Short-Term Problems, Long-Term Opportunities?

By Sasha Cekerevac for Investment Contrarians | May 1, 2013

Short-Term Problems, Long-Term Opportunities One of the common questions I get asked is: where are the long-term opportunities for growth? We all know that the American economy is growing extremely slowly, yet most people don’t realize how international many of the S&P 500 companies really are.

As an example, while we all think of Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) and Pizza Hut as American restaurants, the parent company, YUM! Brands, Inc. (NYSE/YUM), has a growth plan that is not based domestically and is instead focused on the Chinese economy.

Because S&P 500 companies are increasingly focusing on growth potential around the world, the one economy that has seen consistent increases in gross domestic product (GDP) has been the Chinese economy.

However, recent data are showing signs that the Chinese economy might be slowing down. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial profits in March increased by 5.3% year-over-year, but it marks a drop from the 17.2% increase in industrial profits recorded during January and February. (Source: Orlik, T., et al., “Chinese Industrial Profit Growth Slows,” Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2013.)

Earlier this year, we received information that the Chinese economy did post a lower-than-expected GDP increase of 7.7%, down from 7.9% during the fourth quarter of 2012. The leadership in China is trying to engineer a slower Chinese economy to prevent bubbles.

So, what does this mean for S&P 500 companies?

Many S&P 500 stocks are looking toward the Chinese economy as the next great growth generator. YUM! Brands opened almost 2,000 restaurants in 2012, of which 889 were based in China. (Source: “YUM! Staying the Course: China and a Whole Lot More, … Read More

Why the Eurozone Recession Is Important for America

By George Leong for Investment Contrarians | May 1, 2013

Eurozone Recession Is Important for America George Soros knows a thing or two about making money from big bets. In 1992, Soros made a $10.00 short wager on the British pound and walked away with a billion dollars in profits.

Soros is now convinced Germany needs to rethink its strategy toward the sustainability of the eurozone and, in a draconian manner, believes the country should leave the euro.

Of course, should this happen, the 17-country eurozone would collapse, triggering a massive economic Armageddon and financial crisis in Europe that would ultimately generate chaos for the global economy.

Now, I doubt Germany or France—the two pillars integral to the eurozone—will exit the euro, but the reality is that the situation in the economic zone remains in a financial crisis with little hope of revival.

The problem is that the eurozone is firmly in a financial crisis and recession, trying to find its way out.

Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy are a drag on the ability of the eurozone to get out of its financial crisis. The unemployment rate in Greece and Spain is over 25% and worsening.

Italy just formed a new government, but there’s tons of work left for that debt-ridden country before it can exit its own financial crisis that has been building for years.

With all of this bad news, it’s not surprising to see people in the eurozone feeling the despair. According to the European Commission, economic morale in the eurozone remains weak after declining in March and April. (Source: Emmot, R., “Economic mood in euro zone sours again in April,” Reuters, April 29, 2013.)

And it appears that the solution will again … Read More